Analysis of Petrol Consumption Trends in Nigeria: Data from July 2023 suggests a Significant Drop!

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) recently released data indicating a notable decrease in petrol consumption in Nigeria during July 2023. According to the Authority's report, petrol consumption dropped by 16.8% last month, with daily consumption reaching 52 million litres compared to June's figure of 64.96 million litres. This article will delve into the comprehensive breakdown of petrol stock levels and sufficiency metrics provided by the NMDPRA, shedding light on land-based and marine stock, dead stock, sufficiency days, and stock distribution among key Nigerian petroleum stakeholders.

Petrol Stock and Dead Stock:

As of the end of July 2023, the land-based stock of petrol, excluding dead stock, stood at 1.120 billion litres. The marine stock, which accounts for berth and offshore availability, amounted to 521 million litres. Combining these figures, the total stock less dead stock reached 1.641 billion litres. Additionally, depot deadstock contributed to the overall stock, with a reported volume of 83.637 million litres. Taking into account dead stock, the total inclusive stock reached 1.725 billion litres.

Sufficiency Days:

To determine sufficiency metrics, the NMDPRA calculated the number of days the current stock could sustain consumption. Land-based days sufficiency was calculated at 21.55 days, while marine days sufficiency, considering berths and offshore areas, was determined to be 10.02 days. The combined total days sufficiency measured at 31.57 days.

July 1, 2023, Stock Levels:

On July 1, 2023, the NMDPRA reported that the land-based stock of petrol was 1.059 billion litres. The marine stock, including berth and offshore availability, was noted at 826.447 million litres. Total stock, excluding dead stock, came to 1.885 billion litres. Depot deadstock was reported as 83.095 million litres. Incorporating dead stock, the total inclusive stock reached 1.968 billion litres. Land-based sufficiency was calculated at 16.31 days, while marine days sufficiency stood at 12.72 days. The combined total days sufficiency was 29.03 days.

Stock Distribution Among Key Stakeholders:

Petrol stock levels were distributed among key Nigerian petroleum stakeholders. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) held a stock of 293.380 million litres. Members of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) collectively possessed 91.202 million litres. The Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN) held the highest share at 753.825 million litres.

July 31, 2023, Stock Levels:

As of July 31, 2023, the national inland PMS stock amounted to 1.203 billion litres. Within this, NNPCL held 377.68 million litres, MOMAN had 60.973 million litres, and DAPPMAN's share was 765.16 million litres.

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Impact of Subsidy Removal on Consumption:

In July 2023, Farouk Ahmed, the chief of the NMDPRA, highlighted a significant reduction in daily petrol consumption figures. He stated that daily consumption had dropped from 65 million litres, the rate before subsidy removal, to 46.3 million litres as of July. This downward trend in consumption figures from January through July showcases the impact of subsidy removal on consumer behavior.

The latest data from the NMDPRA reveals a considerable drop in petrol consumption in Nigeria during July 2023. The comprehensive breakdown of stock levels and sufficiency metrics provides valuable insights into the current state of the Nigerian petroleum industry. With decreasing consumption figures and the impact of subsidy removal on consumer behavior, these findings have significant implications for stakeholders in the sector.